Key Takeaways:
- One Nation is gaining ground in federal polling, potentially at the expense of the Coalition, with some polls showing them reaching as high as 17-18%.
- A new MRP poll by DemosAU suggests that One Nation could win up to 12 seats in a federal election, with the party making the two-candidate-preferred count in 49 out of 150 seats.
- The poll highlights the potential for volatility in the electoral system, particularly in rural and conservative seats, where a small shift in votes could lead to significant changes in seat outcomes.
- The estimates of preference flows used in the poll are uncertain and may not accurately reflect how voters will behave in a real election.
- The potential for One Nation to win seats is largely concentrated in Coalition-held seats, with the party potentially benefiting from Coalition preferences in seats where Labor is the main opponent.
Introduction to the Trend
There has been a clear trend in recent federal polling, with One Nation gaining ground and potentially reaching historic highs in terms of vote share. This trend has been observed across multiple pollsters, with the party polling in the mid-teens in some cases. If this trend were to continue, it could have significant implications for the outcome of the next federal election. The DemosAU poll, which was released recently, provides a glimpse into what the electoral landscape might look like if One Nation were to achieve such a high vote share.
The DemosAU Poll
The DemosAU poll, which was conducted from October 5 to November 11 with a sample size of 6928 respondents, suggests that One Nation could win up to 12 seats in a federal election. This is a significant increase from the party’s current representation in parliament and would be the highest vote share polled by a minor party in a federal election under the modern party system. The poll also suggests that One Nation would make the two-candidate-preferred count in 49 out of 150 seats, with the party polling 25% or more in 21 seats and 30% or more in eight seats.
The Electoral System and Preference Flows
The DemosAU poll highlights the potential for volatility in the electoral system, particularly in rural and conservative seats. The poll suggests that a small shift in votes could lead to significant changes in seat outcomes, with the leading candidate in each seat averaging a primary vote of just 37%. The poll also highlights the importance of preference flows in determining the outcome of seats, with the estimates of preference flows used in the poll being based on limited data. The pollster has used the preference flows from the last two elections where One Nation made the two-candidate-preferred count to estimate the preference flows in other seats. However, this approach may not accurately reflect how voters will behave in a real election, particularly in seats where the dynamics are different.
The Impact on the Coalition
The potential for One Nation to win seats is largely concentrated in Coalition-held seats, with the party potentially benefiting from Coalition preferences in seats where Labor is the main opponent. The DemosAU poll suggests that 11 of the 12 seats that One Nation is predicted to win are currently held by the Coalition, with the remaining seat being the independent-held seat of Calare. This could have significant implications for the Coalition’s prospects at the next election, particularly if One Nation is able to maintain its current level of support.
The Uncertainty of Preference Flows
The estimates of preference flows used in the DemosAU poll are uncertain and may not accurately reflect how voters will behave in a real election. The pollster has used the preference flows from the last two elections where One Nation made the two-candidate-preferred count to estimate the preference flows in other seats. However, this approach may not accurately reflect how voters will behave in a real election, particularly in seats where the dynamics are different. For example, in the seat of Hunter, One Nation gained a strong flow of preferences from right-wing minor parties, but in the seat of Maranoa, the preference flow was more mixed. This uncertainty highlights the need for caution when interpreting the results of the poll and the potential for different outcomes in different seats.
The Potential for Volatility
The DemosAU poll highlights the potential for volatility in the electoral system, particularly in rural and conservative seats. The poll suggests that a small shift in votes could lead to significant changes in seat outcomes, with the leading candidate in each seat averaging a primary vote of just 37%. This volatility could lead to significant changes in the electoral landscape, particularly if One Nation is able to maintain its current level of support. The poll also suggests that the Greens could lose the seat of Ryan, not because their vote drops, but because the LNP vote drops and Labor gains ground. This highlights the complexity of the electoral system and the potential for different outcomes in different seats.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the DemosAU poll provides a glimpse into what the electoral landscape might look like if One Nation were to achieve a high vote share. The poll highlights the potential for volatility in the electoral system, particularly in rural and conservative seats, and the importance of preference flows in determining the outcome of seats. However, the estimates of preference flows used in the poll are uncertain and may not accurately reflect how voters will behave in a real election. As the election approaches, it will be important to closely monitor the polls and the electoral landscape to gain a better understanding of the potential outcomes.