Key Takeaways:
- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for New York City, the Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, eastern Connecticut, and most of Long Island from 4 p.m. Friday to 1 p.m. Saturday.
- Heavy snow is expected, with accumulations of up to 8 inches in some areas.
- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Jersey Shore and Central Jersey, with snowfall totals of 3-5 inches expected.
- The storm is expected to bring significant impacts to the Tri-State Region from Friday evening into Saturday morning.
- Snowfall totals will vary by region, with areas to the north potentially seeing higher totals and areas to the south seeing less.
Introduction to the Winter Storm
The National Weather Service has issued a First Alert Weather Day for Friday evening into Saturday morning due to accumulating snow that could be heavy at times. A Winter Storm Warning is in place for all of New York City, as well as the Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, eastern Connecticut, and most of Long Island. The warning is in effect until 1 p.m. Saturday, with heavy snow expected and accumulations of up to eight inches possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Jersey Shore and Central Jersey, including Monmouth, Middlesex, Somerset, Ocean, and Hunterdon counties, with snowfall totals of 3-5 inches expected due to mixing and freezing rain and sleet.
Christmas Day Weather
Despite some flurries in the region earlier in the morning, Christmas 2025 will not be recorded as a White Christmas. Instead, it will be a day with a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the mid-40s. Winds will start to increase by the late afternoon hours, gusting to 30 mph at times. These winds will signal the arrival of another cold blast for tonight, with lows dipping into the lower 20s for the city and points south, while teens will be common north of the city. Wind chills will range from the teens into the single digits.
The Winter Storm
Rolling into Friday, clear skies will quickly cloud over in advance of a significant winter storm that will bring widespread impacts to the Tri-State Region from Friday evening into Saturday morning. With highs only in the upper 20s to low 30s, the main impacts will mainly be heavy snow. Some mixing with sleet and freezing rain is possible well to the south and west of the city. Thankfully, high winds are not anticipated to be an issue with this storm. Forecast model data continues to suggest that a general 4–8-inch snowfall is likely with this system, with areas to the north potentially seeing higher totals and areas to the south seeing less.
Breaking Down the Storm
The storm is expected to develop in several stages. From 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Friday, a wave of low pressure will develop along a stationary front, bringing snow into the region from west to east. Initially, the snow will be light, but as the evening progresses, it will become moderate to heavy. From 7 p.m. Friday to 7 a.m. Saturday, the storm will be at its peak, with snow likely to be very heavy at times. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour or more during this timeframe, leading to quick accumulations. For areas south and west of the city, some mixing with sleet and freezing rain is possible, especially in Ocean County. From 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturday, the storm will start winding down, with precipitation ending from west to east. A general 4–8-inch snowfall is anticipated, with higher amounts north and west of the city, and lower amounts southwest of the city.
Regional Snowfall Totals
Snowfall totals will vary by region. In New York City, 4-8 inches of snow are expected, with similar totals expected in Long Island, particularly in Nassau and western Suffolk Counties. Central Jersey and the Jersey Shore can expect 4-8 inches of snow, with lower totals of 2-4 inches expected in central and southern Ocean County. Northern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and Connecticut can expect 4-8 inches of snow, while the Upper Hudson Valley and far Northwestern New Jersey may see 8-10 inches. It’s essential to check the latest forecast for the most up-to-date information on snowfall totals and any changes to the storm’s track or intensity.