Key Takeaways
- The 2026 primaries will play a crucial role in shaping the future of both the Democratic and Republican parties.
- Democrats are searching for definition and direction after their 2024 loss, while Republicans are weighing the future of their party under Trump’s leadership.
- Loyalty to Trump will be a dominant theme in many Republican primary contests.
- The primaries will also serve as early tests for leaders in both parties considering 2028 presidential campaigns.
- The Democratic Party is divided over ideology, strategy, and style, with some candidates pitching themselves as progressives and others as pragmatists.
- The Republican Party is experiencing a civil war, with some candidates embracing Trump’s "Make America Great Again" movement and others distancing themselves from it.
Introduction to the Primaries
The 2026 primaries are expected to be highly contested, with many candidates vying for positions in Congress and governorships. These primaries will not only determine the candidates for the midterm elections but also serve as early battlegrounds in the fight for the future of both parties. Democrats are still reeling from their 2024 loss and are searching for definition and direction, while Republicans are navigating the future of their party under Trump’s leadership.
Debating Democrats’ Future
Democratic voters and candidates are divided over strategy, ideology, and style. The conflict is about what is most appealing to voters, from those who have left the party to the idea of bringing in new voters who may be disillusioned with politics altogether. This fight is playing out in several primary contests, including the Senate primary in Texas, where Rep. Jasmine Crockett is running as a progressive and State Rep. James Talarico is pitching himself as a candidate who can appeal to voters in both parties. The party’s ideological divides are also playing out in Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota, where candidates are testing different theories for how to win traditional "blue wall" states.
Trump’s Revenge
Loyalty to Trump continues to define Republican contests, and some 2026 primaries will test whether Trump can exact revenge against Republicans who have crossed him. Trump has endorsed Navy veteran Ed Gallrein against Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie in the GOP primary, and has also thrown his weight behind Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ bid for governor. Another key race dominated by loyalty to Trump is Louisiana’s Senate race, where Sen. Bill Cassidy is running for re-election against well-funded Republican opponents who have bear-hugged Trump and framed Cassidy’s conviction vote after the Jan. 6 riot as a betrayal.
The Left’s Anti-Establishment Angst
Many Democrats are fueling primaries across the Senate map, especially in Maine, where Gov. Janet Mills is facing off against military veteran Graham Platner in the primary to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins. Platner, a progressive backed by Sanders, has decried Schumer and Democratic leaders, arguing that "people don’t want establishment politicians." This angst on the left is also leading to challenges against sitting Democratic lawmakers, as progressive groups have banded together to oust incumbents who they say aren’t doing enough to fight Trump.
MAGA Purity Tests
Apart from the races mentioned above that specifically center on Trump, a slew of other GOP primaries will test how he has reshaped the Republican Party. The most consequential may be in Texas, where the GOP civil war has culminated in multiple primary opponents challenging Sen. John Cornyn. Trump is a central theme in this race, with Attorney General Ken Paxton hammering Cornyn’s past criticisms