Key Takeaways:
- Harvard is heavily favored: The Crimson are a dominant force in the Ivy League, while Columbia struggles.
- Offensive mismatch: Harvard boasts a potent offense led by QB Jaden Craig, while Columbia’s offense is inconsistent.
- Defensive strength: Harvard’s defense is among the best in FCS, stifling both the run and pass, whereas Columbia’s defense has weaknesses, especially in pass coverage.
- Special teams advantage: Harvard has elite special teams, while Columbia struggles in this area, leading to potential field position advantages for the Crimson.
- Betting Strategy: The recommendation is to wait for the spread to potentially move to Harvard -27.5 before placing a bet on the Crimson to cover.
Game Overview
The Harvard Crimson are set to face off against the Columbia Lions in a college football matchup on Friday, November 7, with kickoff scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Harvard enters the game as a significant favorite, with a spread of -28.5 points and a moneyline of -50000. Columbia is the underdog at +28.5 points and a moneyline of +3500. The over/under for the game is set at 47.5 points.
Harvard Crimson Preview
Harvard has established itself as the top team in the Ivy League this season, dominating its conference opponents. They are currently ranked ninth in the FCS Playoff rankings, highlighting their strong performance. In their recent game, Harvard defeated Dartmouth by a convincing three-touchdown margin, showcasing their offensive prowess by outgaining the Big Green by 171 total yards. Quarterback Jaden Craig has been a standout player, throwing for four touchdowns in their last game and bringing his season total to 16. He anchors an offense that is complemented by a strong and efficient running game, making it difficult for opponents to defend.
Defensively, Harvard has been equally impressive, particularly in stopping the run. Opponents are averaging just 2.9 yards per carry and a mere 89 rushing yards per game against the Crimson. Harvard’s defense has allowed more than 14 points only once this season (Holy Cross) and has conceded a mere 10 touchdowns throughout the season. This defensive strength is expected to be a significant factor in playoff games and allows Harvard to be a serious contender.
Columbia Lions Preview
Columbia has faced significant challenges throughout the season, struggling to a 1-6 record. Their offensive struggles stem from the departure of key talent and an inconsistent quarterback situation. As a result, the Lions have only managed to score an average of 12 points per game and have struggled to create significant offensive plays. The ground attack has been inconsistent, and the offensive line has struggled in pass protection.
Defensively, Columbia has shown improvement since allowing 38 points in their season opener against Lafayette. However, they have struggled against stronger opponents who have been able to overwhelm them. Turnovers, special teams errors, and poor red-zone defense have further compounded their challenges. While the Lions’ defense has been relatively solid against the run, the offense’s struggles have frequently put them in difficult positions, and they have struggled with pass coverage.
Analysis and Prediction
The line for this game initially opened at Harvard -25 and quickly moved upwards, reflecting the perceived mismatch between the two teams. It currently sits at -28.5. Harvard boasts a potent offense led by quarterback Jaden Craig, who has proven to be a dynamic playmaker. The receiving corps has also improved, contributing to the team’s offensive firepower. While the ground game is still developing, running backs Xaviah Bascon and DJ Gordon have the potential to make explosive plays. Harvard’s offensive line is particularly strong, having allowed only six sacks and 22 tackles for loss this season. Columbia, in contrast, has struggled to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, with just six sacks this season and a PFF pass rush grade of 101st in FCS.
Columbia’s linebackers have often been indecisive in run and pass coverage, leading to significant issues in the secondary. Over the past four weeks, Columbia has allowed completions on 72% of pass attempts, with eight touchdown passes conceded. Harvard’s defense, ranked fifth in FCS by PFF, excels in tackling and prevents big plays. Columbia’s passing game has been ineffective, with a rotation of quarterbacks who have combined for just six touchdown passes and a 51% completion rate.
Furthermore, Harvard holds a significant advantage in special teams. Columbia’s special teams have been plagued by long returns, blocked kicks, and other errors. Harvard’s elite special teams are expected to create favorable field position for the Crimson.
Betting Recommendation
Given the significant disparity between the two teams, the best bet is on Harvard to cover the spread. However, it is recommended to wait for the spread to potentially move to Harvard -27.5 or better before placing a wager. This Harvard team is well-coached, disciplined, and plays complementary football, making them a strong contender to cover the current spread.