Key Takeaways
- The chances of a white Christmas are decreasing due to warming temperatures, with some areas experiencing a significant decline in snow probability.
- The standard for a white Christmas varies between the United States and Canada, with the National Weather Service requiring at least one inch of snow on the ground or falling during the day, and Environment Canada requiring at least 2 centimeters of snow on the ground at 7 a.m.
- This year, warm weather is moving into the East, making it less likely for snowbanks to remain, while storms developing in the West offer a possibility of a white Christmas for some areas.
- The song "White Christmas" was written by Irving Berlin in 1938 while he was working in Southern California, and its original version expressed his nostalgia for snow.
Introduction to the Disappearing White Christmas
If you live in the eastern half of the United States or Canada, you might have been teased by an early-season snow that dusted New York City and blanketed Toronto, offering a postcard-perfect December. However, as Christmas approaches, the atmosphere has undergone a significant shift. Warm weather moving into the East is making it more likely that those lingering snowbanks will turn into slush, dimming the hopes of waking up to a white Christmas. But storms developing out west offer a twinkle of possibility.
The Standard for a White Christmas
The standard for what constitutes a white Christmas depends on where you’re celebrating. In the United States, the National Weather Service sets a bar: at least one inch of snow must be on the ground on Christmas morning, or at least one inch must fall during the day. To the north, Canadians have a slightly different measure. Environment Canada, the country’s forecasting agency, says at least 2 centimeters (about 0.8 inches) of snow must be on the ground at 7 a.m. A white Christmas is so reliable by that measure that meteorologists also track a "perfect Christmas" — a somewhat rarer event in which not only is there snow on the ground, but snow is actively falling as presents are opened.
A Decreasing Chance of a White Christmas
Unfortunately, a white Christmas across most of the country is looking less likely this year. Since cold snaps in early December, a stubborn weather pattern has pumped above-average temperatures into the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. While quick-moving systems could provide a last-minute replenishment for parts of Eastern Canada and the higher elevations of New England, the broad outlook is bleak for most snow-lovers. For the best chance of a guaranteed white Christmas, one would need to look to northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
The Origins of "White Christmas"
American culture’s most enduring anthem of winter nostalgia was written under a palm tree. Irving Berlin began composing the song "White Christmas" around 1938 while working in Southern California. He was spending a lot of time in Hollywood, and may have been nostalgic for the snow. In his original, rarely heard introductory verse, Mr. Berlin made his feelings clear on the difference between a Los Angeles Christmas and one back East. When Bing Crosby recorded the song in 1942, that verse was cut, stripping away the song’s California context and turning it into a universal longing for a snowy past.
Hope in the High Country
This year, even Beverly Hills is facing a dreary holiday. A powerful storm system is expected to pummel the California coast with rain just in time for Christmas Eve. For those willing to drive into the clouds, the story changes. The Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains are expected to receive a significant dumping of "skiable" snow from this same West Coast storm system. Forecasters are already warning travelers heading to the mountains to go early; the very snow expected to make the holiday white is likely to make the roads treacherous by Christmas Eve.
A Dwindling Tradition
The maps below illustrate a sobering trend. Four years ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its 30-year climate baselines, revealing that white Christmases have become statistically scarcer. While some areas see year-to-year spikes, the long-term data show more regions experiencing a decrease in snow probability than an increase. As the planet warms, the "ones we used to know" are becoming harder to find. For much of the continent this year, the dream of a white Christmas will remain just that — a song on the radio and a memory of winters past.