Key Takeaways
- A potential windstorm may cause havoc on Wednesday morning/midday, but the situation is still uncertain
- The windstorm would only affect the western valleys from Eugene to Longview, not the Gorge, Cascades, or eastern Oregon
- The storm’s impact would depend on the low-pressure center’s movement and strength, with some models predicting 60-75 mph gusts
- The situation is expected to be an "all or nothing" event, with either a significant windstorm or no storm at all
- The public is advised to keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours for updates
Introduction to the Weather Forecast
The weather forecast for the week was expected to be calm and relaxed, but a brief windstorm may disrupt the tranquility on Wednesday morning/midday. The situation is still uncertain, and the public is advised to keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours. The potential windstorm would be a classic southerly windstorm setup for the western valleys from Eugene to Longview, but it would require a specific set of conditions to occur.
The Details of the Windstorm
To get a big southerly windstorm in the valley, a deep area of low pressure must move northward close to the coastline, which is referred to as "The Danger Zone". If the low moves inland over I-5 or east, there would be no storm west of the Cascades. The low must stay out along or off the coastline to get a southerly surge of wind as it passes by. The faster a low moves, the bigger a danger it becomes, as the air rushing in behind it would produce strong winds. The north-south orientation of the valley would also contribute to the windstorm’s impact.
Model Forecasts and Predictions
For two days, the ECMWF (Euro) model has been strengthening a surface low-pressure center off the California coast, then shooting it straight north at an incredibly fast pace. Other models, such as the WRF-GFS and NAM-3KM, have also predicted strong wind gusts, with some forecasting gusts of 60-80 mph. However, the morning run of the Euro model has weakened the low and shifted it east, passing pretty much over the Cascades, which would result in a breezy west/northwest wind instead of a significant windstorm. The use of "ensembles" of models has also provided a better idea of where the low-pressure center might move and how deep it’ll be.
Updates and Latest Developments
The morning ensembles from the Euro have shifted the low quite a bit, with most of the 50 members of the ensemble indicating that the low would pass east of I-5, resulting in no windstorm. This has led to some good news, as the situation may be less severe than initially thought. However, it is still important to pay close attention to the forecast over the next 24 hours, as the situation can change quickly. The public is advised to follow the latest updates and stay informed about any changes in the weather forecast.
Conclusion and Next Steps
In conclusion, the potential windstorm on Wednesday morning/midday is still uncertain, and the public is advised to keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours. The situation is expected to be an "all or nothing" event, with either a significant windstorm or no storm at all. The latest model forecasts and updates will provide more information on the storm’s potential impact, and the public is advised to stay informed and prepared for any eventuality. New model information is expected to be available every six hours, and the public can follow the latest updates on social media and television.