Key Takeaways
- The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy rejects the post-1945 liberal international order, promoting a world of spheres of influence where major powers dominate their neighborhoods.
- Canada is uniquely vulnerable to American abandonment of the global order due to its trade-dependent economy and limited defense capabilities.
- The US seeks to exert control over the Western Hemisphere, using economic and military power to dominate the region.
- Trump’s approach to international relations is zero-sum, with a focus on exploiting weaknesses and imposing terms on weaker nations.
- Canada and other democracies must work together to create an alternative to dependence on the US, including negotiating a prosperous open world economy and constructing collective defenses.
Introduction to the Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy
The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy marks a significant shift in the US approach to international relations, formalizing its withdrawal from the post-1945 liberal international order. The document’s explicit rejection of open trade, security through alliances, and the promotion of liberal democracy should serve as a wake-up call for other national leaders, who may have been under the illusion that Donald Trump is a normal president with whom pragmatic bargains can be struck. Canada, in particular, is uniquely vulnerable to American abandonment of the global order, given its trade-dependent economy and limited defense capabilities.
The Trump Administration’s Vision for a New World Order
The Trump document denounces free trade as "predatory economic practices" and promoting democracy and human rights as "misguided hectoring." American allies are seen as freeloaders on defense spending, and the US is warned against being drawn into conflicts and controversies that are remote from its interests. China is warned against direct attack on Taiwan or constraining lanes of seagoing commerce, but the document also emphasizes the need for China to produce more for "household consumption" since others cannot absorb its "enormous excess capacity." This approach reflects Trump’s affinity for spheres of influence, where major powers such as the US, China, and Russia ruthlessly police their respective neighborhoods and allow others to do the same.
Implications for Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship
The special animus towards Europe clarifies that NATO and US-European security cooperation are at best on life support. Immigration is seen as a threat to Europe, with the US seeking to "cultivate resistance to Europe’s current trajectory" and encourage "the growing influence of patriotic European parties." This approach is at odds with the document’s insistence on the primacy of national sovereignty, as well as support for far-right parties that share Trump’s hostility to "the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty." The goal is a world of states without multilateral constraints, in which most bargains will be struck bilaterally, with the stronger imposing terms on the weaker.
The Trump Administration’s Approach to the Western Hemisphere
The Trump administration sees the Western Hemisphere as America’s sphere of influence, with its preponderant economic and military power entitling it to overweening dominance. The National Security Strategy asserts a "Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine," excluding outside powers from the region and seeking control of strategic locations and valuable resources. The US will prioritize commercial diplomacy, using tariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as powerful tools, and US diplomats will be expected to help American companies compete and succeed. Nations in the Western Hemisphere are expected to see the US as their "partner of first choice" and accept "sole-source contracts for our companies." This approach reflects Trump’s willingness to interfere brazenly in the affairs of other states in the Western Hemisphere, as seen in his use of tariffs to discourage prosecution of his Brazilian ally Jair Bolsonaro.
Implications for Canada
Canada is likely to be affected significantly by the Trump administration’s approach to international relations. While Trump is notoriously volatile and unpredictable, it is more likely that he wants to make Canada an economic vassal, rather than seeking to annex it. There are precedents for this approach, such as the administration of William Howard Taft’s exploration of commercial reciprocity with Canada in 1910-11. Recent comments by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggest that the administration is intent on shifting all North American auto assembly to the US, with Canada permitted to produce only parts. This approach reflects Trump’s rejection of mutually beneficial interdependence and his focus on exploiting weaknesses and imposing terms on weaker nations.
The Need for a New International Order
The Trump administration’s approach to international relations has significant implications for Canada and other democracies. The US is no longer a reliable ally or trading partner, and growing awareness of this reality may catalyze greater cooperation among like-minded states to create an alternative to dependence on Washington. Canada, the European democracies, and other democracies have the collective economic heft to negotiate a prosperous open world economy without the US and construct collective defenses sufficient to counter revisionist powers. However, getting there will take time, and the next three to ten years will be ones of economic adversity and geopolitical risk. Decades of excessive dependence on the US mean that other democracies must ramp up defense spending from low levels and find replacements for the key capabilities the US alone provides.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy marks a significant shift in the US approach to international relations, formalizing its withdrawal from the post-1945 liberal international order. Canada is uniquely vulnerable to American abandonment of the global order, given its trade-dependent economy and limited defense capabilities. The US seeks to exert control over the Western Hemisphere, using economic and military power to dominate the region. Trump’s approach to international relations is zero-sum, with a focus on exploiting weaknesses and imposing terms on weaker nations. Canada and other democracies must work together to create an alternative to dependence on the US, including negotiating a prosperous open world economy and constructing collective defenses. The next three to ten years will be ones of economic adversity and geopolitical risk, but with collective effort, it is possible to build a more secure and prosperous future for Canada and other democracies.