Key Takeaways:
- The Liberal party must not attempt to mimic One Nation’s populist policies to combat the threat of Pauline Hanson’s party.
- One Nation’s support has roughly doubled nationally, making it a serious chance of securing the third Coalition seat in the 2028 election.
- The Coalition is debating One Nation’s main preoccupation of cutting immigration, with the opposition expected to unveil a set of "principles" to guide its migration policy.
- Barnaby Joyce’s defection from the Nationals to One Nation has made it "much more challenging" for the Liberals to retain their seats in the 2028 election.
- The Liberal party must focus on developing policies that are "sensible and practical" rather than centered in populism.
Introduction to the Coalition’s Dilemma
The Liberal party is facing a significant challenge in the 2028 election, with One Nation’s rising popularity and Barnaby Joyce’s defection from the Nationals to lead the party’s Senate ticket in New South Wales. The Coalition’s joint Senate ticket in NSW is expected to place the Liberals in the first and third positions, with the Nationals at number two. However, with One Nation’s support roughly doubling nationally, the party is now a serious chance of securing the third Coalition seat, putting the second Liberal at risk.
The Risks of Mimicking One Nation
New South Wales senator and leading moderate Maria Kovacic has cautioned that the Liberals must not attempt to mimic One Nation’s populist policies to combat the threat of the party. Kovacic stated that the Liberals must focus on developing policies that are "sensible and practical" rather than centered in populism. She emphasized that the party must not become "One Nation lite" and instead remain true to its liberal values. This approach is crucial in maintaining the party’s identity and differentiating itself from One Nation’s populist agenda.
The Impact of Barnaby Joyce’s Defection
Barnaby Joyce’s defection from the Nationals to One Nation has made it "much more challenging" for the Liberals to retain their seats in the 2028 election. Joyce’s decision to join One Nation has been seen as a significant blow to the Nationals, with leader David Littleproud describing it as "disappointing". Littleproud stated that Joyce had "turned his back" on the Nationals and his electorate, and instead joined a "party of protest" that is never able to achieve anything other than headlines. Joyce’s defection has also been seen as a significant gain for One Nation, with the party’s support roughly doubling nationally.
The Debate on Immigration
The Coalition is currently debating One Nation’s main preoccupation of cutting immigration, with the opposition expected to unveil a set of "principles" to guide its migration policy. The debate has been marked by anxiety among Liberal MPs about the language being deployed, particularly the phrase "mass migration". The party is expected to announce its migration policy principles this week, although it won’t yet set targets for net overseas migration. The debate on immigration is a critical issue for the Coalition, with One Nation’s populist agenda on the issue resonating with some voters.
The Challenge Ahead
The Liberal party faces a significant challenge in the 2028 election, with One Nation’s rising popularity and Barnaby Joyce’s defection from the Nationals. The party must navigate the complex debate on immigration and develop policies that are "sensible and practical" rather than centered in populism. Kovacic’s caution against mimicking One Nation’s populist policies is crucial in maintaining the party’s identity and differentiating itself from One Nation’s agenda. The party must remain true to its liberal values and focus on developing policies that benefit all Australians, rather than pandering to populist sentiment. Ultimately, the Liberal party’s success in the 2028 election will depend on its ability to navigate these challenges and present a clear and compelling vision for the country’s future.