Key Takeaways:
- The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will be reviewed in 2026, with the US seeking changes to Canada’s supply management and access to dairy markets.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will face a leadership review in January, which could determine his future as party leader.
- The Liberal government is one seat shy of a majority government and is hinting that more opposition MPs may cross the floor to join them.
- The NDP will elect a new leader in March, following a crushing election loss that reduced the party to just seven seats.
- The Liberal government has introduced a new border security bill, which has faced opposition from civil liberties experts and opposition parties.
Introduction to Canadian Politics in 2026
After a wild year in Canadian politics, 2026 is shaping up to be just as action-packed. The year will be marked by key events, including the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), a leadership review for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and the election of a new leader for the NDP. The Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, will also be strategizing on how to move forward, given that they are just one seat shy of a majority government.
CUSMA Review
A mandatory review of CUSMA will begin in January, with Canada entering into formal discussions with the United States. The agreement has provided Canada with crucial protection since the beginning of the US trade war, but the Canadian economy is still being battered by sectoral tariffs on key sectors like steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber. The US is seeking changes to Canada’s supply management and access to dairy markets, as well as changes to the Online Streaming Act, which brought online platforms like Netflix and YouTube under Canadian broadcasting rules. Prime Minister Carney has said that he is confident that the US will not walk away from CUSMA, but the Canadian government will need to navigate these complex negotiations carefully.
Poilievre’s Leadership Review
In January, Conservative members will gather in Calgary to map out the party’s future, including a key decision on whether Pierre Poilievre should stay on as leader. Poilievre has said that he is confident he will pass the review, but the party has faced significant challenges in recent months, including the loss of two MPs who crossed the floor to join the Liberals. Poilievre has denied that his leadership is a problem, instead accusing Prime Minister Carney of trying to manipulate his way to a majority government. The Conservative leader has made some changes to his inner circle, including the appointment of veteran conservative strategist Steve Outhouse as the party’s next campaign manager.
Liberals’ Majority Government
The Liberal government is just one seat shy of a majority government, thanks to the two MPs who crossed the floor from the Conservatives. The Liberals are hinting that more opposition MPs may be considering making the jump, with Energy Minister Tim Hodgson saying that he has received "lots of inquiries" from MPs interested in joining the government. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne has also suggested that some Conservative MPs may be doing "soul-searching" over the holiday break. Prime Minister Carney has said that a "spectrum of MPs" are attracted to his brand of governing, but he has not confirmed whether there is an active recruitment campaign to poach from other parties.
NDP Leadership Race
The NDP will elect a new leader in March, following a crushing election loss that reduced the party to just seven seats. There are five candidates in the race, including Edmonton MP Heather McPherson, former journalist Avi Lewis, and B.C. union leader Rob Ashton. The new leader will face the challenge of getting the NDP out of the political wilderness, after a campaign review cited a "brutal environment" that led to the party’s worst election loss. The review stated that the party failed to effectively counter the "Trump/Poilievre/Carney" mindset that dominated the election campaign, and that the party needs to articulate its own theory of change and assert its message on priorities like housing and affordability.
Border Legislation
The Liberal government has introduced a new border security bill, which has faced opposition from civil liberties experts and opposition parties. The bill proposes expanded powers for law enforcement and government, including provisions to crack down on money laundering and limit refugee claims. However, the bill has been criticized for its potential overreach and "snooping" provisions, and the NDP and Conservatives have said they will not support it. The government has introduced a second bill, C-12, which contains some of the same measures, but the legislation is still in the Senate and needs to be studied further. Other pieces of legislation, including Bill C-4, which approves personal income tax cuts and consumer carbon tax changes, and Bill C-14, which makes changes to the bail and sentencing framework, are also in the hopper.